The trouble with public transit is that it’s so sporadic– at least in rural areas.

I’m trying to get from Middlebury, VT to New York City this weekend to visit some friends. I couldn’t find anyone to share a ride down with, but I don’t want to drive alone. I can get a ride back with a friend, and it would be a pain to deal with a car in the city. That leaves three options to weigh: plane, bus, or train.

Now here’s the rub: I have to be in Manhattan at 5:30 pm Saturday to meet my friends for dinner. But I have a doctor’s appointment in Middlebury at 11:00 am Friday. Seems like it shouldn’t be a problem, right? Let’s see.

It’s 275 miles from Middlebury to New York. If I drove, I could leave Saturday morning and be in New York 5 hours later. In a Prius getting 50 mpg I’d use 5.5 gallons of gasoline, which would cost $23 and emit 110 lbs of CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent). In a fleet-average gasoline car getting 23.4 mpg, the trip would use 11.75 gallons of gas, cost $50, and emit 235 lbs CO2e. Offsetting the emissions for either car would increase the cost by about 3%.

For most people, flying is probably the second go-to after driving for a trip of this length. I could fly out of Burlington Saturday morning and be in New York 90 minutes later. If you add in travel to the airport (I’ll assume I can get a friend to drop me off), checking in, waiting, and getting from JFK or La Guardia to Manhattan it probably takes about five hours - the same as driving. The ticket would cost $170 (though if I’d bought it earlier it might have been less). The flight would emit about 280 lbs CO2e, including radiative forcing effects. Offsetting this would add 1% to the ticket price.

I’d really rather not fly, so I could try taking a bus from Burlington. The way the bus schedules line up, I’d need to get a friend to drive me to Burlington Saturday morning - an hour in the opposite direction from New York. Or I could take the bus up Friday evening and stay with friends. If I left Saturday morning it would take me a bit more than nine hours all told, and I’d get to New York at 3:45 pm. The bus costs $74.50 - a little less than half the cost of flying, but about twice the travel time. It would emit about 130 lbs CO2e - worse than driving alone in a fuel-efficient car! Offsetting the emissions would increase the cost by 1%.

If I tried to take a bus from Rutland, which is closer than Burlington and on the way to New York, I’d have to either miss dinner or leave Friday and miss my doctor’s appointment. The only bus leaves at 11:15 am and gets in at 7:50 pm.

The last option is taking a train. Unfortunately, Amtrak is even more awkward than the bus. If I took a train from Burlington, I’d again have to miss dinner or the doctor. The only train leaves at 9:00 am and gets to New York nine and a half hours later at 6:25 pm - slower than the bus! From Rutland the train is only six hours, but again I’d miss dinner or the doctor. Luckily there’s a train from Port Henry that leaves Friday at 2:12 pm and gets to New York at 8:45 pm. It takes a bit more than six hours, and the ticket costs $69. The train probably emits 180 lbs CO2e - even worse than the bus! Offsetting this would add about 2% to the cost.

In conclusion, there isn’t a great public transit option. Part of the problem is that we simply haven’t invested in transit infrastructure. The Amtrak from Burlington averages 38 miles per hour - and the trains from Rutland and Port Henry average about 40 mph. High-speed rails, switches, and signals could probably double these speeds. And Amtrak service is highly dependent upon where rails run - the buses from Burlington and Rutland actually go slower than the trains, but they take a more direct route.

Another factor is our low population density. About 100 people live in each square mile of the conterminous U.S. The U.K. has 650 people per square mile, and France has almost 290. Building a good public transit system is more difficult in sparsely-populated areas. On the other hand, there is no spot in the lower 48 states that is further than 30 miles from a road.

In the end, I think I’ll go with the train from Port Henry. It’ll take longer than a bus, but will be much more comfortable. I can get some work done, read, and have more time with friends in New York. I’m disappointed that the train may emit more than a bus, but those figures are based on national averages and are highly dependent on the number of passengers. Hopefully the Montreal-New York rail line is a popular one.

–Ian